Foresight

In line with the ENISA's European Union Agency for Cybersecurity's sixth strategic objective, "Foresight on Emerging and Future Cybersecurity Challenges ", the Agency seeks to improve the EU's cybersecurity resilience, by increasing awareness of future threats and countermeasures amongst its Member States and EUIBAs stakeholders. Fulfilling this objective likewise supports the other 6 strategic objectives as it provides input on future threats and challenges.

To achieve this goal, ENISA has developed its own cybersecurity foresight methodological framework grounded in foresight research and future studies in 2021. The framework, created in collaboration with the Ad-Hoc Working Group that includes futurists, sociologists, forecasters and foresight experts, was also used in 2022 to identify threats and challenges likely to emerge by 2030 together with cybersecurity experts from MS and EUIBAs . You can find the report with the complete description of the 2022 foresight exercise here. The top ten emerging threats are listed below.

What are the TOP 10 emerging cybersecurity threats for 2030?

1. Supply chain compromise of software dependencies
2. Advanced disinformation campaigns
3. Rise of digital surveillance authoritarianism/loss of privacy
4. Human error and exploited legacy systems within cyber-physical ecosystems
5. Targeted attacks enhanced by smart device data
6. Lack of analysis and control of space-based infrastructure and objects
7. Rise of advanced hybrid threats
8. Skills shortage
9. Cross-border ICT service providers as a single point of failure
10. Artificial intelligence abuse

The infographic is available here.

In 2022 ENISA also organized the first edition of ThreatHunt 2030 , the first conference on cybersecurity foresight in Europe which attracted more than 120 experts across EU MS and EUIBAs. The second edition Threathunt 2030 will take place in September 2023. For more information please contact the ENISA foresight team.